Election 2016: It can still get wilder all the way to the end
October 26, 2016
With less than two weeks to go, the polling numbers are swinging again. Two weeks earlier by all accounts Hillary Clinton seemed to have the whole thing wrapped up. Trump trailed by as many as 12 points, according to NBC. Today, based on a number of polling statistics the gap has tightened and appears to be swinging towards Trump's favor. Nationally, polls show the gap has narrowed considerably to just 3 points in favor of Clinton and dead even according to Rasmussen at 45/45. Here's a partial list from RealClear Politics on General Election: LA Times/USC Tracking (Clinton 44, Trump 46); ABC News Tracking (Clinton 48, Trump 44); ABC News Tracking (Clinton 50, Trump 45); Rasmussen Reports (Clinton 45, Trump 45); IBD/TIPP Tracking (Clinton 44, Trump 41).
Additionally, according to national Fox News Poll of likely voters, Clinton is ahead of Trump by 44-41. The difference is within the margin of error.
What these figures tell me is that to assume that Clinton has it "in the bag" is tricky. For one thing, polling is not an exact science, no matter how "scientific" the pollsters claim their system or procedure to be. More importantly, the political game is full of surprises. History is replete with erroneous predictions by "experts". That is why many, especially those who usually trail in the pre-election count, say that the only poll they trust is the one done in the polling booth on election day. But of course! The fascination goes on. . .